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‘Max’ a ‘cert!’…

Sunday, September 5th, 2010


Valerius Maximus shouldn’t be extended, never mind beaten, in the Maiden Stakes over five furlongs at York today when there are also three good bets over hurdles at both Fontwell and Worcester!
Often I’ve mentioned Sunday the best punting afternoon of the week (no evening on the ‘Sabbath!) and Saturday by far the worst as it’s so overwhelming.
Paul Cole isn’t anything like the force of old but ‘Ole King’ remains a favourite; he knows a good ‘un instinctively and, apparently, reckons Valerius Maximus is above average; my time-handicap mark, for that second to Invincible ridge over six at Windsor last month, confirms it and this once-raced Spartacus colt is anpped!
Three bets over jumps, Synthe Davis, Pinerock and Society Venue ridden by Richard Johnson, Tony McCoy and Tom Scudamore, respectively.
All in moderate hurdles races at Fontwell and Worcester where Society Venue has any amount in hand of fourteen rivals in the Maiden Hurdle.
Providing ‘mini-fences’ aren’t a problem Society Venue should win ‘alf the track and probably will because Tom doesn’t mess about, as they say.
A ‘yankee’ without the doubles is advised and, hopefully, with winnings plenty of opportuinites at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting next week, beginning Wednesday. Hope springs eternal and so it must!

Selections, York, 2.35 Valerius Maximus (nap); Fontwell, 2.45 Synthe Davis; Worcester, 2.25 Pinerock; 5.10 Society Venue.

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‘Star’ to shine?

Saturday, September 4th, 2010
Starspangledbanner has no serious rival in the group one, £275000 Sprint Cup over six furlongs at Haydock today when all sprint races will be run on the ‘inner course’ which is expected to ride faster than the round circuit!
That’s significant and a help to Starspangledbanner, already a winner of two top-grade races at Royal Ascot and Newmarket this season before finding the minimum trip and a disadvantageous draw against him in the ‘Nunthorpe’ at York last month.
This ‘Star’ is an absolute meteoric speedball, ideally suited to six furlongs and I’ve combed the other fifteen for a danger (thinking like a bookmaker!) and, realistically, can’t find anything ‘on my side’ as they say.
Odds of about 2/1 are therefore acceptable and worth taking; you’re only betting on Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien getting it right and no one could possibly be more meticulous in pursuit of ultimate professionalism.
What isn’t professional’ is the use of two contrasting courses; the ‘inner’ is 8.1 on the going stick and a ‘mile and further 7.0!
That’s a huge disparity, somewhat unacceptable and so I’ll give the rest of this seven-race programme a miss and concentrate on Thirsk where it should pay to Choose The Moment in the Maiden Auction Stakes over six furlongs.
These races are among my ‘favourites’ because the weights are determined by yearling purchase price; spotting the ‘real deal’ at sales is an art and non one better than veteran ex-trainer, Fulke Johnson Houghton, whose daughter, Eve trains twice-raced Choose The Moment, second both starts and clear ‘best-in’ on my time-handicap.
Eve places thoroughbreds shrewdly, stable-companion, Kingarrick, landed my nap earlier this week and this ‘Moment’ looks one not to be missed. Good luck to her.
Also at this popular North Yorkshire venue Ollon is fancied to recoup recent York losses in division one of the Maiden Stakes over seven furlongs; what beats him will win and Hooray in the group three Sirenia Stakes over six at Kempton!
A solid ‘Saturday yankee’ (without the doubles!) and that’s going to be my play.
Selections, Kempton, 2.15 Hooray; Haydock, 3.35 Starspangledbanner; Thirsk, 1.55 Choose The Moment (nap); 5.10 Ollon.

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I’m prognosticating…

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

and have just taken 1.7 BOUNDARIES, 2.40 REDCAR which, as you can see is my nap.

I NEVER lay odds-against on LOT (lay of today) because there are so many chances to get odds-on shots beaten (with patience!) but ‘investing’ is so different; given there are only four ‘decs’  and two can’t win it stands to reason the newcomer, indian arrow, needs to be quite useful to beat boundaries, which is!

boundaries, realistically, is a 1/3 chance given all the pluses.

if it fails, I lose…move on, gain from the experience!

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Big ‘Red’ in Canada!

Friday, September 3rd, 2010
Redwood has been scheduled for the $700000 Northern Dancer Stakes in Canada on the 21st of this month; this rules him out of the ‘Arc!’
That’s a shame because Fame And Glory is currently favourite for the Parisien showpiece on October 2nd but doesn’t appeal on my time-handicap, there is a limit to Aidan O’Brien’s charge and it’s my intention to ‘lay’ if there are sufficient dangers in opposition. At this stage there are but if others adopt  a similarly-negative appproach to Khalid Abdulla with Redwood it could all be so different come race-day.
Travel is the bane of form and though Barry Hills is convinced Redwood wont be inconvenienced by the Canadian trip I’ve seen too many thoroughbreds fail to fire as a result of being journeyed out of their comfort zone.
Recently Richard Hannon has experienced several ‘blips’ with two-year-olds in Ireland/France; can’t be coincidence, eh?
Be wary of horses that travel, even in the UK; it’s a long way in a horse box from Arundel to Musselburgh, for example!

Safari Team should enjoy the Lingfield sand (polytrack!) today!

This twice-raced colt made due improvement from her debut (over course and distance!) when a close third to Marston Moor at Kempton last month; no ‘cert’ by any means but it’s difficult to envisage Peter Winkworth’s charge out of the placings and so, each-way, must be worth including in an each-way double, the ‘best-bet’ around and bane of off-course bookmakers.
In ‘another life’ it became nigh impossible to ‘get on’ but, with competition so fierce nowadays in the ‘High Street’, surely bookies will take any bet to attract custom!
If it was necessary to make a living backing horses EWD’s would be my main sourcing.
Selection, Lingfield, 1.50 Safari Team (e.w); 2.20 Whoateallthepius (e.w); Musselburgh, 2.40 Boundaries; Brighton, 2.30 Dazzling Valentine (e.w).

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